将现场收集的变量与遥感变量进行比较,以在乌干达西部高原地区建模疟疾风险
Brandon D Hollingsworth1, Hilary Sandborn2, Emmanuel Baguma3
1Department of Entomology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14850, USA. bdh79@cornell.edu.
Malaria journal
|June 26, 2023
概括
使用环境数据预测疟疾风险比使用家庭调查更有效. 远程传感数据为疟疾预测提供了一种成本高效且同样有效的替代方案.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 疟疾风险在像村庄这样的小地理区域内有很大差异.
- 影响疟疾风险的因素包括人口统计,行为,房屋建设和环境条件.
- 预测疟疾风险是具有挑战性的,因为这些因素的重要性变化.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较统计模型对家庭一级疟疾风险的预测能力.
- 评估使用远程传感环境数据与资源密集型家庭调查数据的模型.
- 确定用于疟疾风险预测的最具成本效益的方法.
主要方法:
- 乌干达西部的一项家庭疟疾调查与远程传感的环境数据相结合.
- 一般化添加模型被用来预测积极的超敏感快速诊断测试 (uRDT) 和疟疾住院患者的入院.
- 模型使用对样本外家庭 (OOS) 和村庄 (OOV) 的交叉验证进行了评估.
主要成果:
- 环境模型显示,与家庭模型相比,RRDT和住院住院的OOS预测能力更好,更高.
- 结合数据集可以改善住院患者入院的预测,但不能改善RRDT结果.
- 家庭因素对OOV疟疾风险的预测能力有限,仅略高于随机机会.
结论:
- 外部环境,而不是房屋建设,似乎是研究区域残留疟疾风险的主要驱动因素.
- 详细的家庭数据收集对于疟疾风险预测可能不具有成本效益.
- 远程传感数据为预测疟疾风险提供了一个可行的,具有成本效益的替代方案.
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