流行病侵蚀了减贫过程:对生产性生计和贫困回归的影响
Bo Wang1,2, Han Shi1,2, Zhaohua Wang1,2
1School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
iScience
|June 27, 2023
概括
像COVID-19这样的流行病破坏了农村的生计,将家庭推回到贫困中. 我们的研究显示,生产活动大幅下降,超过5%的人面临返回贫困的风险.
科学领域:
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
- 发展经济学 发展经济学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 流行病,以COVID-19为例,对经济稳定和减贫工作构成重大威胁.
- 最近摆脱贫困的家庭特别容易受到全球卫生危机引起的收入冲击.
- 农村的生计往往受到不成比例的影响,因为它们依赖于容易受到破坏的生产活动.
研究的目的:
- 实证地评估COVID-19大流行对农村家庭生产生计活动的影响.
- 量化疫情干扰威胁到收入增长和减贫收益的程度.
- 识别易受伤害的家庭特征,这些特征加剧了流行病的负面影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了48个月的家庭生产电力消费数据.
- 在COVID-19大流行之前,期间和之后的生产活动水平的比较.
- 收入下降和潜在的贫困复发率的估计.
主要成果:
- 最近减贫家庭的51.11%的生产性生计活动恢复到了大流行前的水平.
- 在全国流行病期间,生产活动的平均下降率为21.81%,在区域爆发期间为40.57%.
- 收入较低,受教育程度较低,劳动力较少的家庭遭受了更严重的影响.
- 据估计,收入下降3.74%与生产活动减少有关.
- 潜在的5.41%的家庭面临重新陷入贫困的风险.
结论:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,农村的生产性生计受到严重破坏,威胁到减贫的收益.
- 弱势群体,包括低收入和受教育程度较低的家庭,承受着不成比例的负担.
- 调查结果为制定有针对性的干预措施提供了关键的见解,以防止风险国家在流行病引起的贫困复发.
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