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在中国使用MaxEnt模型预测西红的当前和未来分布

Hangxin Yang^1,2, Nanziying Jiang^1,2, Chao Li^1,3

¹Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species in Agriculture & Forestry of the North-Western Desert Oasis, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University Urumqi 830052, China.

|June 27, 2023

概括

番茄叶采矿者 (Tuta absoluta) 正在中国蔓延,预计在未来的气候变化情景下,合适的息地将发生重大变化. 了解这些转变对于害虫管理和防止农业经济损失至关重要.

科学领域:

农业昆虫学农业昆虫学
气候变化影响评估气候变化影响评估
生态建模生态建模

背景情况:

番茄叶开采者 (Tuta absoluta) 是中国的一个重要的隔离害虫,于2017年首次被发现.
这种入侵物种对Solanaceae植物造成严重损害,导致经济损失很大.
准确地预测其息地对于有效的害虫管理策略至关重要.

研究的目的:

预测中国西红叶矿工息地的当前和未来的潜在分布.
评估不同气候变化场景 (SSP1-26,SSP2-45,SSP3-70,SSP5-85) 对害虫分布的影响.
确定影响害虫息地适宜性的关键环境因素.

主要方法:

使用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型进行潜在分布建模.
使用ArcGIS软件进行空间分析和预测.
使用接收器操作特征 (ROC) 曲线和遗漏率验证的模型准确性.

主要成果:

目前非常适合的息地遍布中国的北方,东方,南方,中部和西南部.
年平均温度被确定为主要的环境限制因素.
未来息地适合性显示出显著的转变,在各种情景下预测向北和向东北扩张,以及区域收缩和适合性水平的变化.

结论:

该研究提供了可靠的预测,在当前和未来的气候下,番茄叶矿工分布.
气候变化将改变适合息地的空间分布,需要适应性管理计划.
年平均温度,同热度和平均日间范围是息地适应性转变的关键驱动因素.

关键词:

完全绝对的绝对.气候变化气候变化气候变化潜在的适合息地可能适合息地.

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