CMIP6衍生参考和潜在蒸发透气的集合,具有辐射和吸附成分
Nels Bjarke1, Joseph Barsugli2,3, Ben Livneh4,2
1Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering Dept., University of Colorado, Boulder, USA. Nels.Bjarke@colorado.edu.
Scientific data
|June 27, 2023
概括
未来的干旱度评估需要了解大气中的水需求. 本研究提供了CMIP6模型对潜在蒸发透气 (ETp) 和参考蒸发透气 (ET0) 的验证全球估计,预测全球蒸发需求增加.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 水文学的水文学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 评估未来的干旱程度取决于了解大气中的水需求.
- 估计潜在蒸发转化率 (ETp) 和参考蒸发转化率 (ET0) 对于这些评估至关重要.
- 此前,在Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) 中缺乏ETp和ET0的验证的全球数据集.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证由CMIP6气候预测得出的每月ETp和ET0估计的全球数据集.
- 分析蒸发需求的组成部分,包括附带和辐射贡献.
- 根据观察数据集评估CMIP6模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 使用了16个CMIP6预测和四个排放场景.
- 在ET0上应用了Penman-Monteith方程,在ETp上应用了Priestley-Taylor方程.
- 将数据集与气候研究单位 (CRU) 和ERA5-Land再分析产品进行了验证.
主要成果:
- 总体而言,CMIP6组合与ET0和ETp的观测基线一致.
- 模型偏差主要与模拟湿度和向导的区域变化有关.
- 预计在所有排放场景中,蒸发需求将在全球范围内增加,在极地地区显著放大.
结论:
- 开发的数据集为研究未来的蒸发需求和干旱变化提供了全面的资源.
- 增加的蒸发需求,由辐射和吸附驱动,是气候变化预计的重大影响.
- 了解CMIP6模型中的区域偏差对于准确的气候影响评估至关重要.
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