使用统计模型在屠宰前预测草肉牛的尸体重量
Kalpani Ishara Duwalage1, Moe Thandar Wynn1, Kerrie Mengersen1
1Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, Australia.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|June 28, 2023
概括
使用农场数据预测牛肉尸体重量可以提高利能力. 统计模型可以准确预测屠宰前三个月的尸体重量,帮助农场管理决策.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 动物科学动物科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 农场级数据的利用对于提高牛肉行业的决策,生产和利能力至关重要.
- 准确预测尸体重量 (CW) 对于有效的农场管理和市场准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估统计模型,用于预测在屠宰前的各个阶段,草肉牛的尸体重量 (CW).
- 为了评估这些预测的准确性,使用来自北澳大利亚的历史牛群数据.
主要方法:
- 使用增强回归树和多重线性回归模型CW.
- 采用了来自三个属性的2995头草牛的数据,考虑了四个屠宰前的时间点 (1个月,3个月,9-10个月,断奶).
- 包括七个预测因素:断奶体重,体重增加,断奶以来的时间,品种,性别,断奶季节和财产.
主要成果:
- 在所有屠宰前阶段,尸体重量与动物体重有很强的关联.
- 在屠宰前三个月进行的预测中,平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 为4% (~12-16公斤).
- 预测误差随着较早的时间点增加,在断奶时达到~8% (~20-25公斤).
结论:
- 统计模型可以在屠宰前可靠地预测牛肉尸体重量.
- 早期CW预测使农民能够优化养殖实践,库存控制和财务规划.
- 提高预测能力有助于最大限度地提高牛肉行业的利能力.
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