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非洲猪瘟在菲律宾蔓延的时空动态

Chia-Hui Hsu¹, Maximino Montenegro², Andres Perez¹

¹Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

|June 28, 2023

概括

菲律宾的非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 疫情显示出显著的时空聚类和季节性模式,从8月到10月达到顶峰. 了解这些模式对于控制这种毁灭性的猪病至关重要.

科学领域:

兽医流行病学兽医流行病学
动物健康经济学动物健康经济学
疾病生态学疾病生态学

背景情况:

非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 对东南亚的猪业构成严重威胁,并对经济产生重大影响.
自2019年以来,菲律宾经历了大量的ASF流行,因此需要对疾病动态有更深入的了解.

研究的目的:

分析菲律宾ASF疫情的空间和时间模式.
估计时空聚类,季节性指数和ASF的方向传播.
为该地区的ASF有效控制战略提供信息.

主要方法:

分析了2019年8月至2022年7月在菲律宾的19697个ASF农场爆发记录.
空间时间聚类,季节性指数和定向传播模式的估计.
地理分析以确定高发病率地区和无疾病地区.

主要成果:

据报道,ASF疫情主要发生在中部卢森,I和II地区,而西部和中部维萨亚斯地区未受到影响.
观察到大量的ASF疫情的时间和空间聚类.
一个明显的季节性模式出现了,爆发高峰期从8月到10月,发病率最低时间从4月到5月.

结论:

菲律宾的ASF疫情表现出明显的时空聚类和季节性,受到环境和人为因素的影响.
这些发现为减轻ASF的影响和了解其全球流行病学动态提供了关键的见解.
建议针对性干预,考虑到季节性趋势和区域差异,以控制ASF.

关键词:

非洲猪瘟疫情非洲猪瘟疫情中部卢松 (Luzon) 地区菲律宾菲律宾菲律宾菲律宾菲律宾菲律宾菲律宾疾病控制疾病控制季节性模式的季节性模式空间分析就是空间分析.时间空间集群时间空间集群

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