使用"生活行星指数"量化全球脊椎动物人口趋势的可靠性和数据不足
Shawn Dove1,2, Monika Böhm2,3, Robin Freeman2
1Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK.
Global change biology
|June 28, 2023
概括
可靠的生物多样性指标对于保护至关重要,但数据缺口阻碍了准确性. 这项研究模拟了趋势可靠性,揭示了数据的整理和重新访问人口有效地提高了指标的准确性,特别是在代表性不足的地区和物种.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 全球生物多样性正在下降,需要有效的保护政策和可靠的指标来制定决策.
- 现有的生物多样性指标,比如生活行星指数,遭受不完整和有偏见的数据,限制其准确性和可靠性.
- 评估指标可靠性是具有挑战性的,因为缺乏"现实世界"的基准来进行比较.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种新的建模方法来评估生物多样性趋势指标的可靠性.
- 确定影响生物多样性趋势数据可靠性的关键因素,超越简单的物种代表性.
- 评估提高生物多样性指标可靠性的策略,特别是在数据不足的地区和种群中.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个趋势可靠性模型,使用模拟数据集来表示完整的"现实世界"数据.
- 利用退化样本数据集来模拟现实世界的指标数据 (例如,生活行星数据库).
- 使用距离测量来比较部分采样数据的趋势与完全采样数据的趋势,以量化可靠性.
主要成果:
- 指标可靠性受到时间序列的数量和长度以及它们的增长率变异的影响,而不仅仅是物种表示.
- 许多生活行星指数趋势需要更多的数据以获得可靠性,全球南方地区尤其存在缺陷.
- 鸟类的趋势显示出更高的可靠性,而爬行动物和两动物的趋势是最缺乏数据的.
结论:
- 开发的模型提供了一种可靠的方法来评估生物多样性指标可靠性.
- 整理现有数据和重新访问研究地点是提高指标可靠性的有效策略.
- 解决数据缺口,特别是代表性不足的种类和地区,对于准确的全球生物多样性监测至关重要.
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