根据不同的气候变化情景,到2100年全球PM2.5预测和相关死亡率
Wanying Chen1,2, Xingcheng Lu3, Dehao Yuan4
1Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR 999077, China.
Environmental science & technology
|June 28, 2023
概括
未来的气候变化显著影响细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 水平和相关的过早死亡率. 虽然一些情景显示死亡人数减少,但人口老龄化可能会增加与PM2.5相关的总体死亡率,需要加强空气污染控制.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 环境细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 对公众健康构成重大风险.
- 气候变化场景影响影响影响PM2.5度的气象和排放因素.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种气候情景,从2021年到2100年预测全球PM2.5度.
- 评估未来因PM2.5暴露而导致的过早死亡的负担.
主要方法:
- 结合深度学习,重新分析数据,排放数据和CMIP6气候预测.
- 利用全球暴露死亡率模型来估计死亡负担.
主要成果:
- SSP3-7.0预计全球PM2.5度最高 (2100年将达到34.5μg/m3),SSP1-2.6预计最低 (15.7μg/m3).
- 75岁以下的PM2.5相关死亡预计将在SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5.5下降.
- 预计75岁以上个体的过早死亡率将增加,导致整个场景的总PM2.5死亡人数上升.
结论:
- 空气质量改善可能会被人口变化 (人口老龄化) 抵消.
- 迫切需要加强空气污染减缓战略,以应对未来的健康负担.
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