一个艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行病模型的稳定性分析,在一个不一致的环境中进行性传播
Juping Zhang1,2, Xueyan Ma1,2, Zhen Jin1,2
1Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, People's Republic of China.
Journal of biological dynamics
|June 28, 2023
概括
人口迁移显著影响艾滋病毒/艾滋病的传播. 数学建模表明,根据初始条件和移动速度,迁移可以维持或消除疾病.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 和获得性免疫缺陷综合征 (AIDS) 仍然是全球重大健康挑战.
- 了解疾病动态,特别是在相互联系的群体中,对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查人口迁移对艾滋病毒/艾滋病在多贴片环境中的传播的影响.
- 分析迁移可能导致疾病持续或灭绝的条件.
主要方法:
- 为异性传播艾滋病毒/艾滋病制定一个多补丁数学模型.
- 基本复制数 () 的导出和分析.
- 针对无病和特有平衡的全球非对称稳定性的分析.
- 数字模拟应用于两个补丁场景.
主要成果:
- 基本的复制数 () 决定了平衡的稳定性.
- 如果,没有疾病的平衡在全球上是不对称的稳定.
- 迁移动态影响疾病的总体传播:孤立地区的灭绝导致持续的灭绝,而孤立地区的特有性导致持续的特有性. 混合情景取决于移民率.
结论:
- 人口迁移在艾滋病毒/艾滋病的时空动态中起着至关重要的作用.
- 移民可以促进艾滋病毒/艾滋病的传播或有助于消除艾滋病毒/艾滋病,这取决于特定区域的流行率和移民强度.
- 数学模型是预测相互连接的人口疾病结果的宝贵工具.
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