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全球未来的人口暴露于热浪的风险

Yuwei Wang1, Na Zhao2, Xiaozhe Yin3

  • 1State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China.

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全球城市人口因气候变化和城市扩张而面临越来越多的热浪暴露. 沿海和低海拔城市,特别是在温带和热带地区,是最脆弱的. 政策和规划对于适应至关重要.

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气候变化 气候变化 气候变化热浪 热浪 热浪 热浪人口暴露的人口暴露.城市化的城市化.

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科学领域:

  • 环境科学 环境科学
  • 气候科学 气候科学
  • 城市规划 城市规划

背景情况:

  • 由于气候变化和城市热岛效应 (UHI) 的驱动,城市地区的极端热浪对社会构成重大威胁.
  • 现有的研究往往过于简化了人类的热浪暴露,忽视了感知温度和身体舒适度,导致了不可靠的未来预测.
  • 缺乏对未来热浪暴露的全面,精细分辨率的全球分析.

研究的目的:

  • 提供第一个全球性,精细分辨率的预测,预测到2100年未来的城市人口暴露在热浪中.
  • 在考虑城市扩张的情况下,根据四个共同的社会经济路径 (SSP) 分析这些预测.
  • 确定有针对性的政策干预的关键因素和脆弱地区.

主要方法:

  • 利用全球精细分辨率建模,预测到2100年城市人口暴露在热浪中的情况.
  • 纳入了四条共享的社会经济路径 (SSP),并考虑了城市扩张.
  • 分析了气候影响和城市化相互作用对暴露变化的贡献.

主要成果:

  • 全球城市人口对热浪的暴露预计将在所有四个SSP中增加.
  • 温带和热带地区,以及沿海和低海拔城市,面临着最大的暴露.
  • 气候影响是主要的驱动因素 (约. 46.4%),其次是气候与城市化相互作用 (约. 18.5%).这是一个很大的问题.

结论:

  • 对于脆弱的沿海和低海拔城市,特别是低收入和高收入国家,迫切需要政策改进和可持续发展规划.
  • 持续的城市扩张显著影响未来的人口暴露于热浪.
  • 应对热浪风险需要综合战略,同时考虑气候变化和城市化.