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美国在疫苗接种前 (1923-1932) 的流行动态

Laura W Pomeroy¹, Senya Magsi², Shannon McGill²

¹Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Translational Data Analytics Institute, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.

|June 28, 2023

概括

历史上的疹数据显示,较大的城市经历了持续的传播,而较小的城市则有零星的爆发. 这一分析为了解病复发和控制策略提供了关键的基线信息.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
传染病的动态传染病的动态.
公共卫生监督公共卫生监督

背景情况:

是一种可以通过疫苗预防的疾病,在过去二十年中,病例数量不断增加.
了解病的历史传播模式对于识别导致其重新出现的因素至关重要.
长期监测数据对于有效的传染病管理至关重要.

研究的目的:

量化分析美国1923年至1932年间的病历史动态.
为了建立一个基线,以了解病复发.
为了确定影响麻疹传播模式的因素.

主要方法:

对1923年至1932年间美国70个城市报告的病例时间序列数据的分析.
使用密度依赖的SEIR模型来估计有效生殖数 (R _e).
研究了城市规模,人口密度,季节性和疫情同步性之间的关系.

主要成果:

在研究期间,共有239,230例病例被报告.
较大的城市每年都会出现流行病,而较小的城市则间歇性爆发.
持续传播的关键社区规模估计在365,583至3,376,438个人之间.
麻疹病例与城市大小有正相关,表明密度依赖的传播.
平均有效生殖数 (R _e) 计算为1.2,其中的变化表明超级传播事件.
麻疹病例在3月达到峰值,从12月到4月的传播增加,与每周的分娩相关.

结论:

美国病历史数据突出显示了人口密度对传播的影响.
该研究量化了关键的流行病学参数,包括有效生殖人数.
这些发现强调了长期监测数据的价值,以告知控制和未来关于疾病复发的研究.

关键词:

关键社区规模关键社区规模密度依赖的传输方式麻疹病毒病毒的病毒.这是疫苗接种前的时代.R (((0)) 是一个值.季节性是季节性的

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