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季节性降水预测能力的气候驱动的变化
Phong V V Le1,2,3, James T Randerson4,5, Rebecca Willett6,7
1Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA. lepv@ornl.gov.
Nature communications
|June 28, 2023
概括
气候变化将改变海洋表面温度 (SST) 和降水关系,影响到2100年的季节性降水预测能力. 这影响了水资源管理策略,特别是在热带和热带以外的地区.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在全球范围内改变降水模式.
- 季节性降水的可预测性对于气候适应至关重要,但在未来的气候情景下,人们对其了解甚少.
研究的目的:
- 研究气候变化如何通过改变海面温度 (SST) - 降水关系来影响季节性降水的可预测性.
- 通过CMIP6模型,预测到2100年季节性降水预测能力的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用的合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型.
- 分析了季节性降水和前季度海面温度 (SST) 之间的远程连接.
- 评估SST-降水关系的预测变化及其对可预测性的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计气候变化将改变SST-降水关系,影响到2100年季节性降水的可预测性.
- 预计SST的热带季节性降水可预测性将全年增加,除了北亚马逊在北极冬季的例外.
- 预计在北极春季和冬季期间,亚洲中部地区的热带外气候可预测性将增加.
结论:
- 季节性降水的可预测性变化,以及年间变化的增加,为区域水资源管理带来了新的挑战和机遇.
- 了解这些可预测性转变对于制定有效的气候适应战略至关重要.
- 未来的气候预测表明降水预测能力的区域差异很大.
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