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由于气候变暖导致的降雪量减少, 导致极端降雨
Mohammed Ombadi1,2, Mark D Risser3, Alan M Rhoades3
1Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA. ombadi@lbl.gov.
Nature
|June 28, 2023
概括
极端降雨事件在北半球高海拔地区的加剧速度超过预期, 这种增加突显了人们对洪水的脆弱性,
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 水文学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 极端降水事件对水资源的可持续性构成重大挑战.
- 极端降雨尤其严重,
- 之前的研究没有区分液体 (雨) 和固体 (雪) 降水极端.
研究的目的:
- 调查高海拔地区的极端降雨情况.
- 要确定降水阶段 (雨与雪) 是否影响极端降雨预测.
- 了解雪雨分区在气候模型不确定性中的作用.
主要方法:
- 对气候再分析数据集的分析.
- 使用未来气候模型的预测.
- 检查雪雨分区的变化.
主要成果:
- 北半球高海拔地区的极端降雨量增大, 每升温15%.
- 这种放大是由于气候变暖导致的雪变雨.
- 雪雨分区的变化解释了极端降雨预测中的模型间不确定性的很大一部分.
结论:
- 高海拔地区被确定为极端降雨相关危险的"热点".
- 这些发现需要对脆弱的高海拔地区制定强有力的气候适应计划.
- 这项研究提供了一种减少未来极端降雨预测不确定性的方法.
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