开发和验证一种传统的试管婴儿完全受精失败预测模型
Ming Li1,2,3, Xiangyue Duan1,2,3, Nan Zhang1,2,3
1Center for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third Hospital, No. 49 North Huayuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China.
Journal of assisted reproduction and genetics
|June 29, 2023
概括
这项研究开发了一种预测模型,以识别在传统体外受精 (IVF) 中面临完全受精失败 (TFF) 风险的患者. 该模型使用各种患者因素来预测TFF的概率,帮助临床决策.
科学领域:
- 生殖医学 生殖医学
- 在体外受精过程中受精.
- 临床预测建模临床预测建模
背景情况:
- 完全受精失败 (TFF) 在辅助生殖技术中构成了重大临床挑战.
- 预测TFF对于优化体外受精 (IVF) 结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个预测模型,用于估计传统全受精失败 (TFF) 的个体概率.
- 确定在试管婴儿周期中导致TFF的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 一个预测模型是使用1635名患者的数据进行开发的,这些患者经历了他们的第一次试管婴儿试验.
- 用多变量逻辑回归分析来构建模型.
- 模型性能使用校准 (Hosmer-Lemeshow测试) 和区分 (AUC) 来评估.
主要成果:
- 确定了13个风险因素,包括女性/男性年龄,BMI,不孕不育持续时间,卵细胞产量,刺激方案,不孕不育病因/诊断,以及各种精子参数 (度,运动性,形态学).
- 该模型表现出令人满意的歧视性能,AUC为0.815 (95%CI:0.783-0.846).
结论:
- 在传统试管婴儿中为TFF建立了一个结合女性和男性因素,特别是精子参数的预测模型.
- 这个模型可以帮助实验室和医生优化试管婴儿治疗策略和患者管理.
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