东亚夏季季风降雨的强预测基于动态变化模式的动态变化模式
Daokai Xue1, Jian Lu2, L Ruby Leung3
1School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China. dkxue@nju.edu.cn.
Nature communications
|June 29, 2023
概括
人为气候变暖将增加东亚夏季季风降水变化. 这种由内部气候动态驱动的转变,预示着未来几十年更极端的季风相关水文事件.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 亚洲季风是大量人口的重要淡水来源.
- 人为气候变暖对季风降雨模式的影响仍然不确定.
- 当前气候预测评估往往忽视了内部气候动态的作用.
研究的目的:
- 评估东亚夏季季风降水的未来变化.
- 为了研究内部气候变化的影响,季风动态.
- 使用大集合和CMIP6模拟来预测降水变化.
主要方法:
- 从大型组合和CMIP6模拟中预测降水.
- 分析基于内部变量的两个主要动态模式的降水数据.
- 识别季风降雨模式的新兴趋势和变化.
主要成果:
- 在两种动态模式的组合中观察到持续增加降水趋势.
- 在两种模式中都检测到每日降水变量的显著增加.
- 预测模式表明这些变化早在2030年代末就出现了.
结论:
- 人为气候变暖预计将增加东亚夏季季风降水的变化.
- 该研究强调了在气候变化评估中考虑内部气候动态的重要性.
- 日常变化的增加表明,在特定的东亚地区,季风相关的水文极端风险增加.
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