枪支所有权与美国各州枪支杀人率之间的关联
1University of Piraeus, 80 Karaoli & Dimitriou Street, Piraeus, 185 34, Greece. kchrist@unipi.gr.
概括
这项研究发现,在美国,枪支所有权与枪支凶杀案之间存在非常微弱的联系. 枪支普及率和枪支暴力之间的关联似乎随着时间的推移而减弱.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 枪支政策研究 枪支政策研究
背景情况:
- 美国面临着高比例的枪支凶杀案,以及广泛的枪支所有权.
- 以前的研究表明,枪支普及率和枪支杀人事件之间存在显著的积极联系.
- 关于枪支可用性和枪支暴力之间的关系的强度和性质的争论仍在继续.
研究的目的:
- 重新检查美国枪支普及率与枪支凶杀案之间的关联.
- 利用所有50个州的最新和更详细的枪支所有权估计.
- 评估先前观察到的关联是否与最近的数据和精细的方法论相符.
主要方法:
- 分析了从1999年到2016年的纵向数据.
- 在统计分析中应用贝叶斯的多层次马-鱼模型.
- 包括调整后的分析,考虑到其他犯罪率.
主要成果:
- 在枪支普及率和枪支杀人事件之间观察到非常小的积极关联.
- 在调整为一般犯罪率后,这种关联显著减少.
- 这些发现表明,近年来,枪支普及率与凶杀案的联系可能有所减弱.
结论:
- 美国枪支普及率和枪支杀人事件之间的关系可能比以前估计的要弱.
- 由于方法上的差异或数据的局限性,以前的研究可能高估了这种关联.
- 需要进一步的研究来了解枪支暴力和枪支所有权的演变动态.
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