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开发一种预测性风险分层工具,以确定45岁以上的人口在7年内面临新发性中风风险

Kang Yang¹, Minfang Chen¹, Yaoling Wang¹

¹Department of Geriatrics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.

Frontiers in aging neuroscience

|June 30, 2023

概括

一个新的中风风险评分工具有效地识别了中国高风险人群.

科学领域:

老年学是一门学科.
流行病学流行病学
心血管医学心血管医学

背景情况:

脑卒中是老年人群的重大健康问题.
新的中风风险因素需要先进的预测工具.
准确的风险分层对于早期干预至关重要.

研究的目的:

开发一种针对新发性中风的预测性风险分层工具.
确定中年和老年中国人中风的多维风险因素.
验证该工具在预测7年中风风险方面的性能.

主要方法:

分析了来自中国健康与退休长度研究的5844名参与者 (年龄≥45岁) 的队列.
拉索-考克斯回归从50个风险因素中确定了关键预测因素.
使用内部和外部数据集与ROC和校准曲线开发和验证了一个名图.

主要成果:

九个预测因素,包括低体力表现和甘油三糖指数,都被纳入了名图.
诺米图表表现出良好的预测性能 (AUC从0.65到0.71不等).
该工具有效地区分了低,中等和高风险群体,七年中风患病率分别为3.36%,8.32%和20.13%.

结论:

开发了一种经过验证的临床工具,用于中国中年和老年人中中风风险分层.
脑电图准确地预测了个人的7年内新发性中风风险.
这种工具可以帮助识别有针对性的预防策略的高风险个人.

关键词:

低体力表现低体力表现新发作的中风.这个名字是名ogramogram.预测预测预测预测三甘油-葡萄糖指数指数

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