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一个安全的未来? 人类的城市和农业用地利用有利于无飞岛屿特有的铁路,尽管气候变化
Lucile Lévêque1, Rahil J Amin1, Jessie Buettel1
1University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Royal Society open science
|June 30, 2023
概括
塔斯马尼亚本土在目前息地的37%壮成长,受益于人类修改的景观. 这种无飞行轨道显示出对气候变化的适应性,预计到2055年预测范围的损失将是最小的.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 动物学 动物学
背景情况:
- 岛屿特有物种面临着独特的保护挑战.
- 了解物种分布的环境驱动因素对于预测气候变化影响至关重要.
- 塔斯马尼亚本土 (Gallinula mortierii) 是一种无飞轨,已知分布因子有限.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响塔斯马尼亚本土当代分布的环境因素.
- 在气候变化情景下预测潜在的未来分布变化.
- 评估物种对环境变化和人为改造的适应能力.
主要方法:
- 采用了现场工作和物种分布建模.
- 分析了诸如降水,海拔和土地覆盖等环境变量.
- 使用气候变化预测来预测未来的分布.
主要成果:
- 目前,塔斯马尼亚37%的土地是适合息地,受夏季降水量较低,海拔较低和人为改造的地区的影响.
- 城市地区作为关键的"绿洲",支持高繁殖活动.
- 预计到2055年的气候变化表明,占用范围的损失仅为5%.
结论:
- 塔斯马尼亚本土对气候变化表现出显著的弹性.
- 该物种受益于人为的景观改造,这是对无飞行轨道的罕见适应.
- 保护战略应考虑人类改变的息地在支持这种物种方面的作用.
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