高频监测中国绿色增长面临的风险
Mengnan Xu1,2, Qifa Xu1,3,4, Shixiang Lu1
1School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China.
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 中国的工业化和城市化带来了重要的能源安全和环境挑战.
- 绿色会计系统对于可持续的经济增长至关重要.
- 衡量绿色GDP增长的不确定性对于风险管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出和扩展绿色风险增长 (GGaR) 的概念,以混合频率的数据环境.
- 量化评估和监测与中国GDP增长相关的风险.
- 为可持续发展战略和风险预测提供见解.
主要方法:
- 使用环境经济会计系统 (SEEA) 测量中国的年度GDP.
- 通过混合频率动态因子模型 (MF-DFM) 构建一个每月的绿色金融指数.
- 从2008M1到2021M12使用混合数据采样-定量回归 (MIDAS-QR) 监测中国的GGaR.
主要成果:
- 中国的GDP与传统GDP的比例从2008年的81.97%增加到2021年的89.34%,表明环境外部性减少.
- 高频GGaR与常见频率GGaR相比,显示出更高的预测性能.
- 高频GGaR表现出强大的现在预测能力,并为经济衰退提供了早期警告.
结论:
- 该研究成功开发了对中国GDP增长风险的定量评估和高频监测工具.
- 这些发现为投资者,公司和政策制定者在导航可持续发展方面提供了宝贵的见解.
- 拟议的GGaR框架增强了风险预测,并支持基于证据的环境和经济可持续性政策制定.
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