在布加勒斯特及其农村周边地区的当前和未来气候下,对循环系统疾病的脆弱性存在很大性别差异
Zenaida Chitu1, Roxana Bojariu1, Liliana Velea2
1National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, Romania.
Environmental research
|July 2, 2023
概括
高温的城市温度不成比例地增加了布加勒斯特的循环系统疾病死亡人数,特别是女性和老年人. 农村地区更容易受到寒冷的影响,气候变化加剧了这些趋势.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 循环系统疾病 (CSD) 在罗马尼亚造成50-60%的死亡.
- 罗马尼亚的大陆气候表现出强烈的温度依赖的CSD死亡率.
- 预计布加勒斯特的城市热岛 (UHI) 效应将改变与热/寒相关的死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 调查布加勒斯特及其周边地区的温度和CSD死亡率之间的关系.
- 评估当前和未来与热相关的CSD死亡率,考虑城市与农村的差异和气候变化场景.
主要方法:
- 利用分布式滞后非线性模型来分析温度-心血管疾病死亡率关联.
- 在RCP4.5和RCP8.5场景下使用了五个偏差校正的区域循环模型预测,用于未来的气候分析.
- 计算了与温度相关的CSD死亡率的归因分数 (AF).
主要成果:
- 高的城市温度显示,与男性相比,女性的死亡率反应更强.
- 目前高温AF在城市布加勒斯特男性高出66%,女性高出100%,高于农村环境.
- 城市老年人和患有高血压/脑血管疾病的人群表现出更高的AF;农村人口更容易受到寒冷的影响.
结论:
- 未来的气候预测,特别是RCP8.5,表明与热相关的死亡率显著增加,特别是在城市地区的妇女,老年人和患有特定心血管疾病的人群中.
- 与农村地区相比,女性 (8.2倍) 和老年人 (8.5倍) 在城市聚集区的净AF增长明显高于农村地区.
- 由于UHI和人口代表性的局限性,估计的热归因死亡率可能被低估.
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