一个新的气候和健康决策支持平台:方法,成果和政策考虑
Jeremy J Hess1, Timothy J Sheehan2, Alyssa Miller2
1Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
气候变化带来健康风险,需要适应. 一个新的工具,气候和健康风险工具 (CHaRT),模拟与热有关的疾病和死亡,以指导当地干预.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了健康风险,需要本地化适应战略.
- 气候风险的地理变化需要高分辨率的数据,以便有效的决策.
- 了解气候敏感健康结果对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种因果关系途径,将热暴露与与热相关的发病率和死亡率联系起来.
- 创建一个高分辨率,基于地点的模型来评估热的健康风险.
- 以可操作的见解支持气候变化适应规划.
主要方法:
- 利用IPCC风险框架和系统文献审查来构建一个层次模型.
- 华盛顿州的综合观测数据 (1991-2020年) 和未来预测 (2036-2065年)
- 开发了具有25个变量和可视化平台的气候和健康风险工具 (CHaRT).
主要成果:
- CHaRT模型量化了热带健康风险,显示在极端高温事件期间,中度的历史风险增加.
- 不加权的风险分析确定了人口较少的地区的高度脆弱和危险的地区.
- 模型衍生的脆弱性与现有的环境正义指数有很强的相关性.
结论:
- CHaRT提供了特定地点的见解,以优先考虑与热有关的风险降低干预措施.
- 该工具支持针对性行为和建筑环境的修改,以适应.
- 因果途径的洞察力可以为气候适应规划提供特定危险模型的信息.
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