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通过稳定性和两次时间延迟的霍夫分叉来分析登革热传播动态模型
Prakash Raj Murugadoss1, Venkatesh Ambalarajan1, Vinoth Sivakumar2
1Department of Mathematics, A.V.V.M. Sri Pushpam College (Affiliated to Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli), Poondi, 613 503 Thanjavur, Tamil Nadu, India.
Frontiers in bioscience (Landmark edition)
|July 3, 2023
概括
这项研究模拟了带有时间延迟的登革热传播动态. 数学分析表明,虽然时间延迟不会影响无疾病平衡.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 登革热是由四种相关血清型 (DENV-1至DENV-4) 引起的,由蚊子传播,构成全球健康风险.
- 全球大约有25亿人面临感染登革热病毒的风险.
- 登革热流行病学的数学建模可以追溯到1970年.
研究的目的:
- 调查时间延迟对登革热传播动态的影响.
- 开发一个数学模型,将标准发病率,免疫力丧失,恢复和部分人口保护与双重时间延迟结合起来.
主要方法:
- 对登革热传播的延迟微分方程模型的分析.
- 使用分叉理论检查特有和无疾病平衡的稳定性.
- 数字模拟用于验证理论发现.
主要成果:
- 当基本繁殖数 (R0) 小于 1 时,无病平衡是稳定的,当 R0 超过 1 时是不稳定的.
- 霍夫分叉可能会发生,受到时间延迟对平衡稳定的影响的影响.
- 时间延迟的持续时间不会改变无病平衡的稳定性.
结论:
- 登革热传播模型的时间延迟不会影响无病状态的稳定性.
- 霍夫分叉是可能的,这取决于延迟对平衡稳定性的影响.
- 这种数学建模方法为管理大规模登革热疫情提供了宝贵的见解.
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