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通过等级建模估计现象学和现象学转变

Samantha M Wilson¹, Joseph H Anderson², Eric J Ward³

¹Earth to Ocean Research Group, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada.

|July 3, 2023

概括

一个新的层次模型框架有助于估计现象变化及其变化速率. 这种方法解释了观测和生物过程中的不确定性,有助于研究气候变化影响.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化生物学气候变化生物学
统计建模统计建模

背景情况:

现象变化是气候变化的关键指标,但缺乏标准化的建模方法.
了解现象变化对于预测物种对气候变化的反应至关重要.

研究的目的:

为估计现象学模式和变化速率提供灵活的层次模型框架.
在现象学估计中纳入和量化多种不确定性来源.
为实施拟议框架提供可访问的R包.

主要方法:

开发了一个层次化的贝叶斯模型框架.
估计的年度内现象模式 (例如,高峰日期) 和年度间变化率.
纳入共变量来解释现象反应的变化.
使用一个R包进行实际应用和分析.

主要成果:

该框架成功估计了峰值现象学和跨年变化率.
从观测错误和过程变化的量化不确定性.
在未成年鱼和斯温森病中已被证明适用.

结论:

层次框架为分析气候变化下的现象学变化提供了一个强大的方法.
考虑不确定性可以提高现象转移估计的可靠性.
提供的R包有助于在生态研究中更广泛地采用和应用.

关键词:

斯温森的麻疹是斯温森的麻疹气候变化气候变化气候变化现象学 (phenology) 是一种现象学.这就是鱼,鱼,鱼.

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