简化材料流分析,采用当地专家的判断,及其对不确定性的影响
Wutyi Naing1, Hidenori Harada1, Shigeo Fujii2
1Graduate School of Asian and African Area Studies, Kyoto University, 46 Yoshida-Shimoadachi-Cho, Sakyo, Kyoto 606-8501 Japan.
概括
使用当地专家判断的简化材料流分析 (sMFA) 提供了对城市废物管理中的和的良好估计,不确定性略有增加. 为了准确的环境负载,仍然需要专注于非正式的废物流.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 废物管理 废物管理
- 循环经济是一个循环经济.
背景情况:
- 材料流分析 (MFA) 对于废物管理至关重要,但在低收入和中等收入国家数据有限.
- 建议使用本地专家判断 (LEJ) 的简化MFA (sMFA) 来解决数据稀缺问题.
- 了解简化的不确定性影响对于可靠的结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证缅甸曼达莱城市和的随机简化MFA (sMFA) 模型.
- 使用初级数据,将sMFA模型与密集型MFA (iMFA) 模型进行比较.
- 评估简化对环境流量估计不确定性的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个随机的sMFA模型,将LEJ纳入和流.
- 与基于广泛调查的密集MFA (iMFA) 模型进行sMFA结果比较.
- 分析了sMFA和iMFA之间的中位数差异和正常化的置信区间宽度.
主要成果:
- 气 (3%) 和气 (11%) 的sMFA中位负载略高于iMFA.
- 对于sMFA的规范化的置信区间宽度为的0.05,的0.11,表明有限的不确定性增加.
- 现场卫生,灰色水和工业废水是两种模式的前三大环境流.
结论:
- sMFA提供了一种可行的方法,用于估计数据稀缺地区的和流.
- 在sMFA中的LEJ显示了非正式废物流的限制,例如工业废水和便污泥.
- 需要进一步改进SMFA以准确捕捉非正式废物管理流.
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