中国急性淋巴性白血病的流行:当前趋势和未来预测
Wenxuan Zhu1, Shixuan Liu2, Ying Shi3
1Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
Frontiers in oncology
|July 3, 2023
概括
中国的急性淋巴性白血病 (ALL) 发病率和死亡率在过去三十年中一直在上升. 预测显示,ALL发病率持续增加,但死亡率下降,老年人中的比例越来越高.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 中国观察到急性淋巴性白血病 (ALL) 发病率的快速增加.
- 了解长期趋势对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在中国大陆 (1990-2019) 分析ALL的长期发病率和死亡率趋势.
- 预测未来的ALL发病率和死亡率到2028年.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自2019年全球疾病负担研究和2019年世界人口前景的数据.
- 在趋势分析中采用了年龄时期和队列框架.
主要成果:
- 所有的发病率净漂移是每年7.5%的女性和7.1%的男性.
- 死亡率的净漂移是女性的1.2%和男性的2.0%.
- 到2028年,预计发病率将上升64.1% (男性) 和75.0% (女性);预计死亡率将下降11.1% (男性) 和14.3% (女性).
结论:
- 在过去的30年里,ALL的发病率和死亡率普遍上升.
- 未来的预测表明,中国的ALL发病率正在上升,死亡率正在下降.
- 预计越来越多的老年人将受到ALL及其死亡率的影响,需要针对性的干预措施.
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