提高粮食系统效率是实现中国2060年碳中和目标的关键
Ming Ren1,2,3, Chen Huang1,3, Yazhen Wu1
1College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Nature food
|July 3, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 气候政策 气候政策
背景情况:
- 中国的碳中和目标需要负排放技术,如碳捕获和储存 (BECCS) 的生物能源.
- 大规模的生物能源部署可能与陆地可持续发展目标相冲突,特别是在粮食安全方面.
- 对中国的食品系统和全球贸易伙伴的潜在不利影响需要进行调查.
研究的目的:
- 调查对雄心勃勃的生物能源部署对中国粮食系统的不利影响的缓解策略.
- 分析实现碳中和和确保粮食安全之间的权衡.
- 评估各种措施在平衡气候和可持续发展目标方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用建模和场景分析来模拟生物能源部署的影响.
- 基于国内生产,粮食自给率和贸易的评估情景.
- 对人均热量摄入量,食品价格和环境负担转移的评估影响.
主要成果:
- 在粮食自给自足红线下,国内生物能源生产可以使人均每日卡路里摄入量减少8%,到2060年,粮食价格上23%.
- 放松粮食自给自足限制可以缓解国内问题,但有可能将环境负担外化.
- 将食物损失和浪费减少一半,饮食转变,缩小作物产量差距在缓解外部影响方面是有效的.
结论:
- 同时实现碳中和,粮食安全和全球可持续性需要一个多方面的方法.
- 国内生物能源生产,减少粮食损失和浪费,饮食转变和提高作物产量的组合至关重要.
- 需要仔细的政策设计,以平衡气候目标与粮食系统弹性和全球可持续性.
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