在气候和作物模型预测中,同步低产量的风险被低估了
Kai Kornhuber1,2,3, Corey Lesk4,5, Carl F Schleussner6,7
1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, USA. kk3397@columbia.edu.
Nature communications
|July 4, 2023
概括
曲的喷流增加了全球同时作物失败的风险. 当前的气候模型低估了这些风险,突出了未来粮食安全评估的不确定性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 粮食安全 粮食安全
背景情况:
- 同时的收获失败对全球粮食安全构成重大威胁.
- 假设同时发生的极端天气,可能是由一个的喷流驱动的,会导致广泛的作物失败.
- 准确量化这些事件和模型可重复性对于风险评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化与曲的喷流模式相关的并发低收益率的可能性.
- 评估最先进的作物和气候模型能够重现这些高影响事件的能力.
- 识别影响全球粮食安全风险估计的模型偏差.
主要方法:
- 对观测数据和气候模型输出的分析.
- 模拟大气模式与观察到的极端天气的比较.
- 评估作物模型对模拟天气异常的反应.
主要成果:
- 在夏季,在观测和模型中发现,随着曲的喷流,同时作物产量低的可能性增加.
- 气候模型准确地模拟大气模式,但在偏差调整的模拟中大大低估了相关的地表天气异常和作物影响.
- 在重现曲的喷气状态对作物产量的全部影响时,发现了显著的模型偏差.
结论:
- 由于已识别的模型偏差,由于的喷气状态导致的区域和并发作物损失的未来评估是高度不确定的.
- 在气候风险评估中,必须预测和解决像的喷流这样的高影响,深度不确定的危险的模型盲点.
- 改进的气候风险评估需要考虑当前模型对农业极端天气影响的低估.
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