英国空气中臭氧的临界水平:绘制总量超出中度至高值的地图
R I Smith1, C W Anderson2, D Fowler1
1Institute Terrestrial Ecology, Edinburgh Research Station, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, Scotland.
概括
这项研究模拟了整个英国的臭氧度,以评估超出关键水平的情况. 应用于风暴数据的统计方法成功预测了臭氧水平,有助于环境保护工作.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 臭氧污染对生物目标构成风险,联合国欧洲经济委员会可能设定了临界水平.
- 准确评估超过40nL/L的臭氧超值对于英国至关重要.
- 臭氧度数据在英国大部分地区稀疏,因此需要插值方法.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定整个英国超过40nL/L的总臭氧超值.
- 将最初针对风暴严重程度开发的统计模型应用于臭氧数据进行插值和分析.
- 评估这些统计模型在预测臭氧度和超值方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用来自风暴严重程度数据的统计模型.
- 应用了韦布尔分布模型,以适应来自英国农村监测站点的臭氧数据的总量过剩分布.
- 为臭氧度分析设置40nL/L的门值.
主要成果:
- 维布尔模型的40nL/L值为大多数臭氧总量过剩数据提供了成功的适应.
- 韦布尔模型的尺度参数显示在40nL/L值时具有空间解释性.
- 缺少数据和在更高的门上检测小规模的空间效应带来了挑战.
结论:
- 根据风暴严重程度分析进行的统计建模是评估英国臭氧超值的可行方法.
- 韦布尔模型有效地预测了臭氧水平,特别是在非常大的超值下.
- 可能需要进一步细化,以解决缺少数据和小规模空间变化的局限性,以进行全面的环境监测.
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