极端事件的严重程度的综合过度衡量
1Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
概括
极端事件的严重程度可以通过总结高值的过度来衡量. 新的统计方法扩展了这一方法,将其应用于包括共变量在内的大气臭氧数据.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 极端价值理论是一个极端价值理论.
背景情况:
- 极端事件在环境和其他领域带来了重大风险.
- 量化极端事件的严重程度对于风险评估和管理至关重要.
- 分析极端事件的现有方法可能无法完全捕捉严重程度.
研究的目的:
- 提出和审查一种方法来表示极端事件的严重程度,使用高值的超值总和.
- 扩展统计分布理论,用于分析极端事件的严重程度.
- 将这些方法应用于现实数据,特别是大气臭氧水平,并将其适应现实数据.
主要方法:
- 综述安德森和丹西得出的高门超额的总和限制分配的一般形式.
- 介绍了现有的分布理论的扩展.
- 将统计分析方法应用于大气臭氧数据.
主要成果:
- 该研究回顾并扩展了分析极端事件严重性的理论框架.
- 拟议的方法应用于大气臭氧数据,证明了它们的有用性.
- 开发了该方法的扩展,以纳入共变量信息.
结论:
- 将极端事件的严重程度表示为超过高值的过度的总和是一个有价值的方法.
- 开发的统计方法为分析这些数据提供了一个强大的框架.
- 结合共变量信息可以提高这些方法对复杂的环境现象 (如臭氧水平) 的适用性.
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