小反动物害虫控制对塞内加尔微观和宏观社会经济指标的前期影响:一个系统动态建模方法
Joshua Aboah1,2, Andrea Apolloni3, Raphaël Duboz3
1International Livestock Research Institute, West Africa Regional Office, Dakar, Senegal.
PloS one
|July 5, 2023
概括
对小反动物瘟疫 (PPR) 接种小反动物的疫苗可以大大提高农场的利和肉类消费. 增加疫苗接种覆盖率,即使有补贴,也会提高塞内加尔的经济回报和粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 粮食安全分析 粮食安全分析
背景情况:
- 小反动物瘟疫 (PPR) 疫苗接种是全球根除疫情的关键,但其对农民和国家粮食安全的经济影响仍未得到充分探索.
- 之前的研究强调了疫苗接种成本,质疑了疫苗的利能力,尽管疫苗有效控制疾病.
研究的目的:
- 评估PPR控制策略对塞内加尔农场水平利能力的前期影响.
- 评估PPR控制对粮食和营养安全的国家社会经济影响.
主要方法:
- 使用STELLA Architect.开发了一个两级系统动态模型,集成生产-流行病学,经济,疾病控制,营销和政策模块.
- 该模型经过30年的验证和模拟,并结合了塞内加尔北部牧民家庭调查的数据.
- 分析了9个疫苗接种场景,覆盖范围,浪费和政府补贴各不相同.
主要成果:
- 所有接种疫苗的场景,在26.5%和70%的覆盖率,显示了与没有接种疫苗相比,毛利率收入和人均肉类消费量在统计学上显著增加.
- 在目前的疫苗接种覆盖率下,农场家庭每年平均获得69.43美元,羊肉和山羊肉消费量每人每年增加1.13公斤.
- 实现70%的疫苗接种覆盖率将使平均年度毛利率增加72.23美元,人均消费量增加1.23公斤/人/年.
结论:
- 对PPR的疫苗接种为可持续的根除策略提供了经验证明.
- 这些发现支持促进疫苗接种的社会经济效益,以鼓励农民采用疫苗,并为PPR控制投资提供信息.
- 在塞内加尔,PPR疫苗接种对农场利能力和国家粮食安全都有积极的影响.
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