使用NowcastNet进行极端降水预测
Yuchen Zhang1, Mingsheng Long2, Kaiyuan Chen1
1School of Software, BNRist, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nature
|July 5, 2023
概括
通过结合物理和人工智能, 改善极端天气预报. 它可以准确地提供高分辨率的预测,
科学领域:
- 天气学
- 人工智能
- 数据科学
背景情况:
- 极端降雨事件造成了重大的社会经济损害.
- 目前的降水预测方法在准确性,分辨率和预测时间方面存在问题.
- 现有的基于物理和数据的模型在捕捉复杂的天气动态方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 为极端降水开发一种新的非线性现在预测模型.
- 统一物理进化方案与条件学习方法.
- 通过端到端的神经网络框架优化预测错误.
主要方法:
- 开发了基于神经网络的非线性NowcastNet模型.
- 整合的物理进化方案和条件学习.
- 使用端到端预测错误优化.
- 利用美国和中国的雷达观测进行培训和验证.
主要成果:
- 现在castNet产生了物理上可信的降水现在cast与尖的多尺度模式.
- 该模型在很大的地理区域 (2,048公里×2,048公里) 实现了高分辨率.
- 熟练预测的预测时间长达3小时,在71%的案例中优于领先的方法.
- 准确的预测是轻到重的降雨率,包括极端事件与对流或对流过程.
结论:
- 在极端降水现场预测方面取得了重大进展.
- 统一的方法克服了以前的方法的局限性.
- 该模型显示出卓越的性能和减轻气象灾害社会经济影响的潜力.
相关概念视频
Precipitation and Co-precipitation
1.9K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
1.9K
Precipitation Processes
492
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
492
Precipitation Gravimetry
6.7K
Precipitation gravimetry is based on converting an analyte into a sparingly soluble precipitate, which is separated by filtration and weighed. An ideal precipitate should be pure, insoluble, of known composition, and easily filtered from the reaction mixture.
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
6.7K
Types of Coprecipitation
666
Coprecipitation is the contamination of a precipitate by otherwise soluble species and occurs via different processes. In colloidal precipitates, coprecipitation occurs via surface adsorption. For instance, barium sulfate has a primary layer of adsorbed barium ions and a secondary layer of nitrate counterions. This results in contamination of the precipitate by barium nitrate.
Sometimes, ions in a crystal lattice can undergo isomorphous replacement by inclusions of similar charge and size. For...
Sometimes, ions in a crystal lattice can undergo isomorphous replacement by inclusions of similar charge and size. For...
666
Precipitation of Ions
28.0K
Predicting Precipitation
The equation that describes the equilibrium between solid calcium carbonate and its solvated ions is:
The equation that describes the equilibrium between solid calcium carbonate and its solvated ions is:
28.0K
Precipitation Titration: Endpoint Detection Methods
1.9K
In argentometric precipitation titrations, endpoints can be detected visually by the Mohr, Volhard, and Fajans methods. In the Mohr method, adding a soluble chromate indicator gives an initial yellow color to the analyte solution. As the titrant is added, the first excess of silver ions forms a red silver chromate precipitate, marking the endpoint. The solution pH should be maintained at about 8 by adding solid CaCO3.
In the Volhard method, a standard excess of AgNO3 is first added to the...
In the Volhard method, a standard excess of AgNO3 is first added to the...
1.9K


