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评估过去和当前森林砍伐对南美洲降雨模式的影响
Confidence Duku1,2, Lars Hein2
1Wageningen Environmental Research, Climate Resilience Team, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Global change biology
|July 6, 2023
概括
历史上的森林砍伐大大减少了南美洲的降雨量,40年的森林损失使降雨量在森林砍伐地区减少了18%,在非森林砍伐地区减少了9%. 这突显了森林在维持降雨模式方面的关键作用.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 了解历史森林砍伐对降雨模式的影响对于有效的土地管理和保护至关重要.
- 以前的模型在准确评估由于森林砍伐而导致的观测到的降雨变化方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 量化40年森林砍伐对南美降雨模式的影响.
- 评估当前亚马逊森林覆盖在维持降雨中的作用.
- 在未来的森林砍伐场景下预测潜在的降雨变化.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个时空神经网络模型来模拟基于植被和气候输入的降雨.
- 分析了1982-2020年和2000-2020年的森林砍伐数据.
- 评估了亚马逊生物群和塞拉多地区不同森林砍伐情景下的降雨效应和预测变化.
主要成果:
- 累计森林砍伐 (1982-2020年) 在森林砍伐地区降雨量减少了18%,在非森林砍伐地区降雨量减少了9% (2016-2020年).
- 最近的森林砍伐 (2000-2020年) 在森林砍伐地区降雨量减少了10%,在非森林砍伐地区降雨量减少了5% (2016-2020年).
- 森林砍伐使亚马逊和塞拉多地区的旱季延长的面积增加了一倍,如果所有的森林都被砍伐,亚马逊雨量可能减少36-68%.
结论:
- 历史上的森林砍伐对南美各地的降雨模式产生了重大负面影响.
- 森林保护对于维持区域降雨量和支持可持续农业至关重要.
- 迫切需要采取保护措施,以保护森林生态系统并减轻不利的气候影响.
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