哪些人口统计过程控制着竞争平衡? 贝叶斯对规模结构森林种群模型的校准
Lukas Heiland1,2, Georges Kunstler3, Vladimír Šebeň4
1Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), Ecosystem Analysis and Simulation (EASI) Lab University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany.
Ecology and evolution
|July 6, 2023
概括
该JAB模型预测,由于其优越的阴影耐受性,Fagus sylvatica将主导未来94%的森林社区,即使它最初并不占主导地位. 这凸显了早期生命阶段特征在森林组装中的重要性.
科学领域:
- 森林生态 森林生态
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 社区大会 社区大会
背景情况:
- 光线竞争对于森林社区的组合至关重要,苗木和幼苗的阴影耐受性决定了后期继承物种的组成.
- 当前的森林经常偏离后期顺序平衡,阻碍了对物种组成的直接评估.
- 了解早期生活阶段的人口结构对于预测森林社区动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入和应用JAB模型,这是一个动态模型,侧重于样本人口结构和超级竞争,用于从短期数据中推断竞争平衡.
- 调查耐阴影物种Fagus sylvatica与欧洲温带森林中其他竞争物种之间的长期竞争动态.
- 评估人口差异的影响,特别是阴影耐受性,对森林社区的竞争结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发并应用了节的JAB模型,结合了规模结构化的种群和样本人口统计.
- 利用贝叶斯校准与斯洛伐克国家森林库存 (NFI) 的先前数据,使 JAB 模型与德国 NFI 时间序列相匹配.
- 通过切换物种参数来模拟反事实均衡,以评估特定的人口流程的影响.
主要成果:
- 使用JAB模型进行的推断表明,Fagus sylvatica将在94%的竞争平衡中占主导地位,与其最初的24%的主导地位形成鲜明对比.
- 模拟证实,Fagus sylvatica树苗的较高阴影耐受性是其长期竞争优势的主要驱动因素.
- 早期生命阶段的人口差异显著影响着树种组合和未来森林组成.
结论:
- JAB模型为推断森林社区的竞争平衡提供了一个有价值的工具.
- 野树的阴影耐受性是未来在欧洲温带森林中占据主导地位的关键因素.
- 早期生活阶段的人口特征是长期森林社区结构和组合的关键决定因素.
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