在撒哈拉以南非洲的水,卫生和霍乱
Mustafa Sikder1, Aniruddha Deshpande2, Sonia T Hegde3
1Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, United States.
Environmental science & technology
|July 6, 2023
概括
改善饮用水和卫生设施,特别是管道供水和改善的卫生设施,显著减少了霍乱的发生率. 这些措施可以帮助确定霍乱风险较低的地区,帮助有针对性的公共卫生工作.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
- 公共卫生干预措施 公共卫生干预
背景情况:
- 霍乱风险受到水和卫生设施的访问的影响,但具体的关联尚未完全理解.
- 撒哈拉以南非洲面临着严重的霍乱负担,需要有效的风险评估工具.
研究的目的:
- 估计各种水和卫生措施与撒哈拉以南非洲霍乱发病率之间的关联.
- 评估水和卫生数据的预测性能,以确定霍乱发病率高的地区.
主要方法:
- 随机森林回归和分类模型与2010-2016年国家和地区级数据一起使用.
- 分析了八项获得水和卫生设施的措施,以确定它们与每年霍乱发病率的关联.
主要成果:
- 改善的供水 (管道或"其他改进") 和改善的卫生 (管道,污水管道,下水道或"其他改进") 与霍乱发病率相反相关.
- 该分类模型在识别高风险区域 (AUC 0.81) 和高负预测值 (93-100%) 中表现适度.
结论:
- 水和卫生措施对于选不太可能有高霍乱风险的地区是有价值的.
- 这些措施可以帮助在地理位置上集中详细的霍乱风险评估,即使没有其他数据来源.
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