隐藏的危险和查政策:预测伊利诺伊州未检测到的暴露
Ali Abbasi1, Francis J DiTraglia2, Ludovica Gazze3
1University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Journal of health economics
|July 6, 2023
概括
针对儿童暴露的有针对性的查可以发现比普遍查更多的病例. 这种方法可以改进目前的政策,减少儿童未被发现的中毒.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 儿科公共卫生 儿科公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 儿童暴露仍然是一个重要的公共卫生问题,尽管现有的识别政策.
- 美国目前的查策略各不相同,有些州要求普遍查,另一些州采用有针对性的方法,但相对有效性的研究不足.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较法定普遍查与针对性查的有效性,以确定儿童暴露.
- 估计未检测到的中毒的患病率,并评估不同的查扩展场景.
主要方法:
- 将伊利诺伊州 (2010-2014) 出生的儿童的血水平测试数据与出生记录和潜在暴露来源联系起来.
- 开发一个随机森林回归模型来预测血液中含量 (BLLs) 和绘制未检测到的中毒的地理分布图.
- 分析各种增量选扩展以评估政策影响.
主要成果:
- 估计有5,819名儿童未检测到的血水平 (BLLs) 为5μg/dL或更高,此外还有18,101例确诊病例.
- 根据现有的查政策,大约80%的这些未被发现的病例应该被确定.
- 基于模型的有针对性的查显示出超越当前现状和扩展的普遍查的潜力.
结论:
- 根据预测模型的信息,有针对性的查提供了一种更有效的策略,用于识别血水平升高的儿童.
- 专注于基于模型的有针对性的查的政策改进可以加强中毒的检测,并更有效地保护儿童的健康.
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