气象数据能否改善乳牛个体奶产的短期预测?
L Gasser1, F Perez Cruz1, M Cockburn2
1Swiss Data Science Center, 8050 Zürich, Switzerland.
Journal of dairy science
|July 6, 2023
概括
预测牛的每日奶产是最准确的,使用以前的奶产数据. 温和的天气变化不会改善预测,这表明这些信息已经被过去的产量所捕获. 这一发现对于高效的奶牛农场管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 动物科学动物科学
- 农业气象 农业气象学
- 数据科学在农业中的应用
背景情况:
- 每天的牛奶产量是牛的福祉和农场生产力的关键指标.
- 极端天气影响牛奶产量,但适度气象变化的影响不太清楚.
- 准确预测个体牛奶产量对于群体管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估是否包括适度的气象条件可以改善个人每日牛奶产量预测.
- 为了比较包括牛奶中的天数,滞后的牛奶产量和气象变量在内的预测模型.
- 确定牛奶奶牛准确预测下一天的牛奶产量的最佳特征.
主要方法:
- 利用了8年来来自东瑞士的145头棕色瑞士和64头瑞士牛的奶和气象数据.
- 应用高斯过程回归用于个人每日牛奶产量预测.
- 对比的模型具有不同的特征集:牛奶中的天数 (DIM),滞后的牛奶产量,以及各种气象参数 (温度,湿度,压力等). ) 的情况.
主要成果:
- 纳入滞后牛奶产量的模型实现了最高的预测准确性 (RMSE为2.1公斤,在5-90 DIM范围内).
- 除了以前的牛奶产量数据外,预测准确度显著降低 (RMSE接近8公斤).
- 包括气象特征在任何评估期间都没有提高预测准确性,即使在以品种或平价过的子集中也是如此.
结论:
- 滞后的牛奶产量是适度气候条件下个人每日牛奶产量的足够预测因素.
- 气象变量不会提高预测的准确性,可能是因为它们的影响被以前的牛奶产量间接捕获.
- 专注于历史牛奶生产数据更有效地优化乳牛牛奶产量预测.
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