贝叶斯突变采样器解释了因果判断的分布
Ivar R Kolvoort1,2, Nina Temme1, Leendert van Maanen3
1Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Open mind : discoveries in cognitive science
|July 7, 2023
概括
人民的人民的人民.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 因果推理因果推理
- 计算建模 计算建模
背景情况:
- 因果判断表现出显著的变化,偏离正常分布和规范性反应.
- 像突变采样器这样的现有模型可以解释平均判断,但不能解释响应分布.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种改进的因果推理模型,以解释响应分布.
- 解释反应保守主义和因果判断中的中心倾向等现象.
主要方法:
- 通过将突变采样器扩展到通用先前分布,开发了贝叶斯突变采样器 (BMS).
- 将BMS模型与因果判断的实验数据相匹配.
主要成果:
- 该BMS模型准确地预测了平均因果判断.
- BMS解释了分布特征,包括响应保守性,缺乏极端响应,以及在50%的峰值.
结论:
- 整合通用先前分布显著增强了因果推理模型.
- 贝叶斯基因突变采样器提供了对人类因果判断变异性的更全面的解释.
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