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Updated: Jul 24, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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解决决策过程中的路径依赖问题,以使复合气候风险管理变得可操作.
Thomas Thaler1,2, Susanne Hanger-Kopp1,3, Thomas Schinko1
1Population and Just Societies Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
iScience
|July 7, 2023
概括
目前的风险管理专注于单一风险,与复合风险作斗争. 调整这些战略至关重要,以避免负面的副作用,并防止社会不平等的恶化.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 传统的风险管理历来只针对单一的危险,导致路径依赖.
- 这种单一危险的重点阻碍了适应复杂的复合风险.
- 当前的做法往往忽视了风险和风险管理的相互联系.
研究的目的:
- 论证复合风险治理体系的必要性.
- 突出单一危险风险管理的局限性.
- 强调复合风险对社会不平等的影响.
主要方法:
- 对历史风险管理策略的分析.
- 检查风险管理中的路径依赖性.
- 评估单一危险管理对其他风险和不平等的副作用.
主要成果:
- 单一风险策略很难适应复合风险.
- 缺乏复合风险关注导致忽视的管理策略和副作用.
- 现有和新的社会不平等因不充分的复合风险管理而加剧.
结论:
- 风险管理必须明确地解决路径依赖性.
- 需要强调单一危险管理的积极和消极副作用.
- 过渡到复合风险管理对于减轻社会不平等至关重要.
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