心理学中的元分析往往高估了对效应的证据和效应的大小
František Bartoš1, Maximilian Maier2, David R Shanks2
1Department of Psychological Methods, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Royal Society open science
|July 7, 2023
概括
出版偏差显著影响元分析结果. 一个强大的贝叶斯元分析 (RoBMA) 显示,大多数心理学元分析都高估了效果大小和证据的大小.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 研究方法研究方法研究方法学
背景情况:
- 出版偏见是元分析中的一个关键问题,可能会扭曲结果.
- 现有的调整方法在不同的研究条件下扎,例如效果大小异质性.
- 之前的研究表明,由于心理学中的出版偏见,估计过高的可能性很小.
研究的目的:
- 为了解决当前出版偏差调整方法的局限性.
- 引入和应用一个强大的贝叶斯元分析 (RoBMA) 方法.
- 重新评估心理学元分析中出版偏见的程度.
主要方法:
- 开发并使用了强大的贝叶斯元分析 (RoBMA) 框架.
- 采用模型平均方法,基于预测准确性的加权模型.
- 重新分析了来自Sladekova等人的数据. (2022) 使用RoBMA方法.
主要成果:
- 罗布马表明,超过60%的心理学元分析高估了对效应的证据.
- 超过50%的这些元分析高估了效应大小的幅度.
- 罗布马方法克服了先前方法的"捕获-22"问题.
结论:
- 出版偏见大大膨胀了心理学元分析中的发现.
- 罗布马方法提供了一种更可靠的方法来调整出版偏差.
- 研究人员应该小心在心理学研究中高估效应大小.
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