北大西洋条约组织的成员资格如何改变公众对战争的支持
Michael Tomz1, Jessica L P Weeks2, Kirk Bansak3
1Department of Political Science and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
PNAS nexus
|July 7, 2023
概括
像北大西洋条约组织 (北约) 这样的军事联盟显著增加了公众对捍卫成员国的支持. 当目标是北约成员国时,公众捍卫盟友的意愿更强,影响欧洲安全和未来的冲突潜力.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 国际关系 国际关系
- 安全研究 安全研究
背景情况:
- 公众论是外交政策决策的关键因素,特别是在军事承诺方面.
- 北大西洋条约组织 (北约) 是一个关键的军事联盟,对欧洲安全有影响.
- 了解公众对联盟承诺的支持对于评估威和冲突动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查军事联盟,特别是北约如何影响公众捍卫盟友国家的意愿.
- 检查联盟成员对在假设的侵略情景中对军事干预的公众支持的影响.
- 根据目标国家及其联盟地位,分析公众支持的变化.
主要方法:
- 在13个北约成员国的14000名选民中进行了一项实验.
- 参与者被介绍了一个假设的场景,俄罗斯攻击目标国家.
- 目标身份 (波斯尼亚,芬兰,格鲁吉亚,瑞典) 和其北约成员身份的随机变化.
主要成果:
- 与非北约成员国相比,所有被调查的北约成员国的选民对使用军事力量来保卫北约成员国的意愿明显高.
- 北约成员国对国防意愿的积极影响各不相同,对波斯尼亚和格鲁吉亚来说比芬兰和瑞典更大.
- 在那些认为北约对自己国家有价值的人群中,公众对捍卫盟友的支持更强烈.
结论:
- 成为北约成员国大大增加了公众对捍卫成员国免受侵略的支持.
- 联盟扩张可以通过影响未来冲突的可能性和规模来改变欧洲安全动态.
- 对北约价值的言论框架显著影响公众愿意维护联盟承诺,影响威和防御战略.
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