模拟供应链中断,考虑企业和停电情况
Hiroyasu Inoue1,2, Yoshihiro Okumura3, Tetsuya Torayashiki4
1Graduate School of Information Science, University of Hyogo, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.
PloS one
|July 7, 2023
概括
大东日本地震 (GEJE) 通过供应链中断造成了重大经济损失. 这项研究通过整合详细的设施损坏和停电数据,提高了经济损失模拟的准确性.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
- 计算机建模 计算建模
背景情况:
- 2011年东日本大地震 (GEJE) 造成了广泛的供应链中断.
- 之前的经济损失模拟缺乏有关设施损坏和区域影响的详细数据.
研究的目的:
- 以更高的准确度模拟GEJE触发的供应链中断造成的经济损失.
- 通过使用详细的多源数据来完善基于代理的模型.
主要方法:
- 采用了基于代理的模型的企业级供应链和机构级数据.
- 综合企业级人口普查,调查和地理信息系统数据,用于精确的损害评估.
- 集成的停电效应和捕获的区域间供应链.
- 应用了特定部门的参数来建模部门异质性.
主要成果:
- 改进后的模型显著提高了预测GEJE后国内生产的准确性.
- 改进主要是由详细的损害评估,区域间供应链数据和停电影响推动的.
- 与其他数据集成相比,特定部门的参数对预测准确度的影响较小.
结论:
- 精制的基于代理的模型提供了更准确的预测,从供应链中断的经济损失.
- 该方法适用于预测未来灾害的经济影响,例如南开沟地震.
- 详细的数据整合对于准确的灾害影响评估至关重要.
相关概念视频
Distribution Reliability and Automation
134
Distribution reliability in electrical power systems is critical for ensuring an uninterrupted power supply to consumers at minimal cost. According to IEEE Standard Terms, reliability is the probability that a device will function without failure over a specified time period or amount of usage. For electric power distribution, this translates to maintaining continuous power supply and addressing customer concerns over power outages. Several indices, as defined by IEEE Standard 1366-2012, are...
134
Power System Three-Phase Short Circuits
114
Determining the subtransient fault current in a power system involves representing transformers by their leakage reactances, transmission lines by their equivalent series reactances, and synchronous machines as constant voltage sources behind their subtransient reactances. In this analysis, certain elements are excluded, such as winding resistances, series resistances, shunt admittances, delta-Y phase shifts, armature resistance, saturation, saliency, non-rotating impedance loads, and small...
114
Fast Decoupled and DC Powerflow
241
The fast decoupled power flow method addresses contingencies in power system operations, such as generator outages or transmission line failures. This method provides quick power flow solutions, essential for real-time system adjustments. Fast decoupled power flow algorithms simplify the Jacobian matrix by neglecting certain elements, leading to two sets of decoupled equations:
241
Multimachine Stability
197
Multimachine stability analysis is crucial for understanding the dynamics and stability of power systems with multiple synchronous machines. The objective is to solve the swing equations for a network of M machines connected to an N-bus power system.
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
197
Power System Distribution
270
Power system distribution involves delivering electrical energy from power plants to consumers through a network of transmission and distribution systems. The process begins at power plants, where energy from coal, gas, nuclear, water, and wind is converted into electrical energy. These plants use three-phase generators, typically rated between 50 to 1300 MVA, with terminal voltages ranging from a few kV to 20 kV, depending on the size and age of the units.
The transmission system is designed...
The transmission system is designed...
270
Bus Impedance Matrix
149
Calculating subtransient fault currents for three-phase faults in an N-bus power system involves using the positive-sequence network. When a three-phase short circuit occurs at a specific bus, the analysis uses the superposition method to evaluate two separate circuits.
In the first circuit, all machine voltage sources are short-circuited, leaving only the prefault voltage source at the fault location. The positive-sequence bus impedance matrix can be determined by solving the nodal equations,...
In the first circuit, all machine voltage sources are short-circuited, leaving only the prefault voltage source at the fault location. The positive-sequence bus impedance matrix can be determined by solving the nodal equations,...
149


