由于加拿大各地的COVID-19和流感而导致的职场缺勤:一个数学模型
W S Avusuglo1, Rahele Mosleh2, Tedi Ramaj3
1Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Toronto, On., Canada.
防止职场缺勤需要强有力的COVID-19和流感管理. 数学建模表明PCR测试和疫苗接种显著减少缺席,但最佳门是关键.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生干预措施 公共卫生干预措施
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19的流行,全球经济遭受了重大损失,部分原因是工作缺勤.
- 流感与COVID-19的同时传播可能会加剧缺勤率和经济影响.
- 了解这些呼吸道病毒的综合作用对于公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化COVID-19和流感对工作场所缺勤的集体影响.
- 评估公共卫生干预措施的有效性,如查和疫苗接种.
- 估计流感免疫对COVID-19传播的间接益处.
主要方法:
- 开发一个数学病区疾病模型.
- 纳入人口查 (PCR测试) 和疫苗接种参数.
- 敏感性分析以确定最佳干预值.
主要成果:
- 适当的PCR测试和针对COVID-19和流感的疫苗接种可以大大减少工作场所缺勤.
- 对于COVID-19 PCR测试,存在一个关键的门,超出此门,额外的测试会产生下降的回报.
- COVID-19疫苗接种率和PCR测试能力是减少缺勤的主要驱动因素.
结论:
- 持续的PCR测试和接种疫苗是建议的公共卫生干预措施,用于管理并发的COVID-19和流感季节.
- 敏感性分析是必要的,以确定测试和疫苗覆盖率的最佳门.
- 流感疫苗接种提供了对COVID-19传播的间接好处,尽管它对缺勤的直接影响不如COVID-19干预措施那么明显.
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