陆地生态干旱的动态变化和与中国大陆各地气象干旱的传播分析
Fei Wang1, Hexin Lai1, Yanbin Li1
1School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
The Science of the total environment
|July 7, 2023
概括
从1982年到2020年,中国的生态干旱总体上下降了. 像厄尔尼诺-南方振荡这样的关键大气模式影响干旱的时间和严重程度,对早期预警系统至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 生态干旱通过改变水的可用性而影响植被.
- 了解干旱动态和驱动因素对于生态稳定至关重要.
- 中国经历了由各种因素影响的复杂生态干旱模式.
研究的目的:
- 分析1982年至2020年中国生态干旱的时空动态.
- 确定生态干旱的主要驱动因素.
- 研究大气循环对生态干旱的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用遥感植物健康指数 (VHI) 和FLDAS数据 (1982-2020年).
- 在趋势分析中使用了Break For Additive Seasons and Trend (BFAST) 算法.
- 应用标准化的回归系数和回归分析来确定驱动因素和大气影响.
主要成果:
- 生态干旱总体上呈现下降趋势,在1985年4月显著下降.
- 观察到的区域差异:中国南部容易出现春夏干旱,四川盆地容易出现秋冬干旱.
- 干旱的传播时间因季节而异,夏季较短 (2.67个月),冬季较长 (7个月).
结论:
- 大气循环因素,包括跨极指数 (TPI),北极振荡 (AO) 和厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO),显著影响生态干旱.
- 这些气候指数可以提高干旱预警系统的准确性.
- 干旱传播的季节性变化凸显了对适应性管理策略的需求.
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