使用基于树的机器学习方法开发多模型合集,以评估未来的可再生能源潜力:土耳其东部特拉斯的案例
1Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, 34469, Turkey. guvende@itu.edu.tr.
概括
土耳其东部特拉斯的未来可再生能源潜力显示,风力发电稳定,但太阳能发电量有前途. 农电压系统可以产生大量的灌水,使作物生长,发电和雨水收集成为可能.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 气候变化建模模型
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 可持续的能源规划需要了解长期可再生能源的潜力.
- 气候变化的影响需要精确预测区域能源资源.
- 土耳其东部的特拉斯是一个具有显著但未被充分探索的可再生能源潜力的地区.
研究的目的:
- 预测土耳其东部特拉斯的未来可再生能源潜力.
- 为区域气候预测评估和选择表现最好的全球循环模型 (GCM).
- 在未来的气候场景下评估太阳能,风能和农业电力系统的潜力.
主要方法:
- 使用合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) GCM数据.
- 应用了Kling-Gupta效率,修改了一致性指数和GCM评估的规范化根-平均平方误差.
- 采用基于树的机器学习方法 (随机森林,梯度提升回归树,极端梯度提升) 进行预测.
主要成果:
- 预计风力发电密度将保持相对稳定.
- 年平均太阳能潜力估计在237.8至240.7千瓦时/米2/年之间.
- 农电系统每年可以收获356-362 l/m2的灌水.
结论:
- 该研究为东特拉斯的可持续能源系统规划提供了宝贵的见解.
- 农电压系统为能源发电,作物种植和收集水提供了多功能解决方案.
- 与简单的平均方法相比,机器学习模型在预测可再生能源潜力方面表现出更高的准确性.
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