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绿灰蓝系统的抗洪能力能否应对未来的不确定性?
Dingkun Yin1, Xiaoyue Zhang1, Yihua Cheng1
1School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Water research
|July 9, 2023
概括
城市抗洪能力 (FR) 受到气候变化和城市化的威胁. 集成的绿色-灰色-蓝色 (IGGB) 系统与低影响开发设施 (LID) 增强性,减轻未来的不确定性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 城市洪水是一个重大的全球性挑战,由气候变化和快速城市化加剧.
- 综合绿色-灰色-蓝色 (IGGB) 系统越来越多地被认可用于减轻洪水,但它们在对未来不确定性的城市洪水弹性方面的作用需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 制定一个框架来量化城市抗洪能力 (FR) 和对未来不确定性的反应.
- 评估IGGB系统的有效性,特别是低影响开发设施 (LID) 的有效性,以提高城市的抗洪能力.
主要方法:
- 采用了一种新的框架,结合了评估指数系统和合模型.
- 在气候变化和城市化情景下量化了城市抗洪能力.
- 评估了IGGB系统的影响和LID的不同比例.
主要成果:
- 发现城市抗洪能力在上游比下游更高,而在未来情景下,上游抗洪能力下降更为显著.
- 气候变化对FR的影响通常比城市化 (减少2.08%至4.09%) 更大 (3.20%至4.28%).
- 结合LID的IGGB系统显著提高了对不确定性的稳定性,与没有LID的系统相比,将FR下降率减少了一半. 确定了13%的建筑用地增加门.
结论:
- 综合绿色-灰色-蓝色 (IGGB) 系统,特别是那些具有低影响开发设施 (LID) 的系统,大大提高了城市对气候变化和城市化的抗洪能力.
- 增加LID的比例可以减轻气候变化的影响,将FR衰退的主要驱动因素转移到城市化,直到一定值.
- 结果为设计有效的IGGB系统和管理面临未来不确定性的类似地区的城市洪水提供了指导.
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