一种基于队列的新型随机流行病模型,具有自适应稳定控制
Edilson F Arruda1, Rodrigo E A Alexandre2, Marcelo D Fragoso3
1Department of Decision Analytics and Risk, Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, 12 University Rd, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
ISA transactions
|July 9, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一个新的随机SEIR流行病模型,用于延迟和传染期的一般分布. 基于排队理论的及时缓解策略可以有效控制流行病的传播,正如COVID-19数据所证明的那样.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 随机过程 随机过程
背景情况:
- 传统的SEIR模型通常假定疾病潜伏期和传染期的指数分布.
- 将这些分布概括为准确建模现实世界流行病至关重要.
- 现有的通用模型可能是复杂的和计算密集的.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的随机SEIR流行病模型,适应一般延迟和传染期分布.
- 开发一个可处理的数学框架来分析这些一般分布下的流行病动态.
- 为了获得疫情控制的条件,并提出有效的缓解策略.
主要方法:
- 开发一种新的SEIR随机流行病模型.
- 使用具有无限服务器和时间变化的马尔科夫链的队列系统.
- 根据随机稳定性和排队系统占用率来推导疫情缩的足够条件.
- 设计稳定缓解策略,以职业率平衡为目标.
主要成果:
- 提出的模型与以前的以指数分布的模型一样可处理.
- 它比具有类似普遍性的半马尔科夫模型更直接.
- 根据排队系统的占用率来得出疫情控制的充分条件.
- 该模型和策略使用来自英国和巴西亚马逊州的COVID-19数据进行了验证.
结论:
- 新的SEIR模型为流行病建模提供了一个可操作但通用的框架.
- 及时实施的缓解策略可以通过管理队列系统的占用率来有效制流行病的传播.
- 这种方法显示出控制COVID-19等流行病的前景.
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