在贝叶斯倾向问题中的分类更新
Stephen H Dewitt1, Nine Adler1, Carmen Li1
1Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London.
Cognitive science
|July 10, 2023
概括
参与者经常避免更新不确定的事件的概率估计,选择"分类"反应或根本没有变化. 这表明"确定性值"会影响人们处理新信息的方式.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策 决策 决策 决策
- 概率论推理可能论推理
背景情况:
- 了解个人如何根据新证据更新信仰对于决策至关重要.
- 之前的研究强调了信念更新中的各种偏见,但对二元结果场景中的特定机制的理解较少.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究人们如何更新倾向估计,当面对不确定的新实例在二进制结果的情况.
- 检查因果结构和场景类型 (基于代理与机械) 对信念更新的影响.
主要方法:
- 通过使用涉及倾向估计的新问题进行了三项实验.
- 参与者更新了有关国际冲突 (导弹爆炸) 和医学诊断 (癌症测试) 场景的估计.
- 因果结构 (常见原因/常见效果) 和场景类型系统地变化.
主要成果:
- 出现了两个主要的响应模式:"分类"响应 (将事件视为确定的) 和"没有变化"响应 (没有更新).
- 大约三分之一的参与者表现出每个模式的反应.
- 这些反应是由"确定性值"模型解释的,参与者避免对二进制结果进行分级更新.
结论:
- 参与者经常在更新二进制事件的概率时默认使用分类或无变化响应,因为他们认为需要确定性.
- "分类"的反应可能会通过积极反动态导致信念两极分化和确认偏见.
- 需要进一步的研究来探索这种确定性值在各种现实世界的决策环境中的影响.
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