应用多方法多模型推断对与辐射相关的固体癌症过量风险模型进行宇航员风险评估
1Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI, Industriestrasse 19, 5201 Brugg, Switzerland.
Zeitschrift fur medizinische Physik
|July 10, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一种评估宇航员辐射风险的新方法,提高了癌症发病率预测的准确性. 将模型平均的超额风险 (ER) 纳入辐射归因生存率下降 (RADS) 中,可以提供更可靠的宇航员安全估计.
科学领域:
- 太空医学 太空医学
- 辐射瘤学 辐射瘤学
- 风险评估 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 太空探索对宇航员构成重大辐射暴露风险.
- 准确估计辐射导致的生存率下降 (RADS) 对宇航员健康至关重要.
- 现有的方法可能无法完全捕捉与辐射风险模型相关的不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 评估将模型平均的过量辐射风险 (ER) 纳入RADS计算中的影响.
- 评估不同模型选择标准 (AIC与BIC) 对RADS估计及其不确定性的影响.
- 为全面的RADS估计引入多方法多模型推理方法.
主要方法:
- 使用模型平均的过量辐射风险 (ER),加权AIC和BIC.
- 计算了所有固体癌症发病率的RADS.
- 开发了一个多方法多模型推断方法,用于一般的RADS估计.
主要成果:
- 使用AIC加权ER的RADS与BIC加权ER相比,产生了较小的风险估计和较窄的置信区间.
- 一般RADS估计用于月球和火星任务.
- 对于月球任务 (40-65岁),男性的RADS为0.42%,女性为0.67%.
- 对于火星任务 (40-65岁),男性的RADS为2.45%,女性为3.91%.
结论:
- 在RADS计算中包括模型平均ER精细化了宇航员风险评估.
- 多方法多模型方法提供了强大的一般RADS估计.
- 建议将这些不确定性措施纳入宇航员辐射风险评估,以提高安全性.
相关概念视频
Cancer Survival Analysis
394
Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...
394
Radiation: Applications
1.2K
The average temperature of Earth is the subject of much current discussion. Earth is in radiative contact with both the Sun and dark space; it receives almost all its energy from the radiation of the Sun and reflects some of it into outer space. Dark space is very cold, about 3 K, so Earth radiates energy into it. For instance, heat transfer occurs from soil and grasses, the rate of which can be so rapid that frost can occur on clear summer evenings, even in warm latitudes.
The average...
The average...
1.2K
Biological Effects of Radiation
15.5K
All radioactive nuclides emit high-energy particles or electromagnetic waves. When this radiation encounters living cells, it can cause heating, break chemical bonds, or ionize molecules. The most serious biological damage results when these radioactive emissions fragment or ionize molecules. For example, α and β particles emitted from nuclear decay reactions possess much higher energies than ordinary chemical bond energies. When these particles strike and penetrate matter, they...
15.5K
Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches
148
Biopharmaceutical studies constitute a vital field aiming to enhance drug delivery methods and refine therapeutic approaches, drawing upon diverse interdisciplinary knowledge. In research methodologies, the choice between controlled and non-controlled studies significantly influences the study's reliability and accuracy.
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
148


