为了应对骑士式的不确定性,COVID-19政策的趋同
Anthony M Sayers1, Christa Scholtz2, Dave Armstrong3
1Department of Political Science, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
Political studies review
|July 11, 2023
概括
由于高度不确定性,早期的COVID-19国内政策显示出一致性,因为政治行为者试图避免选举惩罚. 预计随着反的出现和政治家重新评估政策有效性,这种趋同将会有所不同.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 公共政策 公共政策
- 卫生政策 卫生政策
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,COVID-19大流行引发了前所未有的国内政策反应.
- 早期的流行病政策制定以不同政治参与者的显著一致性为特征.
研究的目的:
- 为了解释COVID-19大流行初期国内政策响应中观察到的趋同.
- 在不确定性条件下模拟影响政治行为者的政策选择的因素.
主要方法:
- 开发一个正式的理论模型.
- 分析政治激励和选举方面的考虑.
主要成果:
- COVID-19的新奇性创造了最大的政策不确定性,推动了趋同.
- 政治参与者优先考虑通过政策合规来最大限度地减少选举风险.
- 由于政策反,专家/公众意见分歧以及政策成本/收益的重新计算,预计趋同将受到侵蚀.
结论:
- 应对COVID-19的初始政策一致性是对不确定性和选举压力的战略反应.
- 随着条件的演变,未来的政策格局可能会出现分歧和潜在的极端政策采用.
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