生物基碳中立性假设对实现净零排放目标的影响:技术经济分析的见解
Hamed Kouchaki-Penchah1, Olivier Bahn2, Kathleen Vaillancourt3
1Department of Construction Engineering, École de Technologie Supérieure, 1100 Notre-Dame St. West, Montreal, Quebec H3C 1K3, Canada.
Environmental science & technology
|July 11, 2023
概括
实现气候目标需要去除二氧化碳和森林管理. 假设生物能源是碳中和的,可能会导致偏见的决策,特别是在森林覆盖面有限的地区.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境建模环境建模
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
背景情况:
- 全球气候目标需要通过土地利用变化和负排放技术 (NET) 进行大量的二氧化碳去除 (CDR).
- 生物能源被宣传为化石燃料的碳中和替代品,但这种假设越来越受到挑战.
- 现有的模型可能会忽略生物质二氧化碳排放的影响,导致潜在的会计错误.
研究的目的:
- 评估将森林封存纳入能源系统模型的影响.
- 评估森林管理策略在减轻脱碳努力中的作用.
- 分析生物能源碳中和假设如何影响决策.
主要方法:
- 使用碳预算模型与能源系统模型集成.
- 模拟场景与不同的森林管理策略和封存能力.
- 在建模框架内分析了生物产生的二氧化碳排放的影响.
主要成果:
- 将森林封存纳入能源系统模型可以显著减轻脱碳负担.
- 有效的森林管理策略可以减少对昂贵负排放技术的依赖.
- 假设生物能源的碳中和性可能会导致偏见的决策,因为低估了生物产生的二氧化碳排放.
结论:
- 在投资于碳捕获和储存的生物能源之前,优先考虑和建立最佳森林管理策略至关重要.
- 生物能源的碳中和假设可能导致不理想的政策和投资选择,特别是在森林覆盖面较低的地区.
- 进口生物能源可能会加剧无法有效隔离生物源排放的地区的环境问题.
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